How do you choose comparable companies for a comp set?
How to pick and screen a trading comps peer set, defend a borderline comparable, and catch the four errors usually hiding in a comp analysis.
On this page
- The orange farm question
- Why the peer set does most of the work
- How to back up "it depends"
- Ask whether you need the comp at all
- Say what actually overlaps
- Close on the standard
- The four errors usually hiding in there
- The target is sitting in its own comp set
- Basic share count instead of fully diluted
- Mixed time periods
- One-time items left in
- How you catch them
- Interview script
"It has been demonstrated time and time again that no asset is so good that it can't become a bad investment if bought at too high a price." (Howard Marks)
The orange farm question
At some point in a valuation interview you get a version of this one: you are valuing an orange farm. Would you include an apple farm in the comps?
Answering yes or no is the trap. Both answers are defensible, and the second you commit to one, the interviewer asks why. The question tests whether you can hold a judgment call and argue for it out loud.
So you give the classic consulting answer. It depends. On its own that is worth nothing. What earns the point is the part that comes after it.
Why the peer set does most of the work
A house does not get priced by forecasting its future cash flow or adding up the cost of its materials. Somebody looks at the neighborhood, looks at what other houses sold for, and compares on a square foot basis. Trading comps do the same thing to businesses. Find companies like this one, pull their multiples, see where yours lands.
That makes the peer set the analysis. A company trading at 12x earnings has no verdict attached to it until you know who else is in the room. Change the room and the verdict flips. Every multiple you quote is a claim about one business relative to the neighbors you picked for it.
Interviewers know this, which is why comp selection is where they go hunting. It shows up two ways. They push on a borderline peer and make you justify it, which is the orange farm. Or they hand you a finished comp analysis and ask what is wrong with it, because the same handful of errors tends to be hiding in there.
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